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Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - NFC Divisional Round Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams
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Right now, Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 49.5 (-110/-110).
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PROS:
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His 61.4% snap rate this year puts him in the #93 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 64.0% this year puts him in the #93 percentile among running backs.In a neutral context, Tampa Bay has run the #5-fastest paced offense this season.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected to run 66.7 plays in this matchup, the #2-most on the game slate.The Buccaneers enter as a 3.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #8-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 30.0% of their plays.
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CONS:
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Fournette finds himself in the #77 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 58 yards.This year, the Buccaneers have played in the #7-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Offenses generally run more in these types of games, which means Tampa Bay could be running a bit less going forward in better conditions.Tampa Bay has been the #32-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 29.2% run rate in a neutral context.The Rams defense has allowed 104 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #6-least in football.The Los Angeles Rams have allowed 4.06 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #5-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Los Angeles have been the #1-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of Los Angeles have been the #3-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Los Angeles have been the #2-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Tampa Bay's ranks #15 in that regard this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Fournette for a -1.4% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The linebackers of Los Angeles have been the #12-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Fournette to exceed his player prop total 54.1% of the time. He projects for 54.2 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $3.59. That makes its return on investment yield +3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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