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Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 69.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 61.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 58.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #86 percentile among running backs.He has received 64.0% of Tampa Bay's carries this year -- #7 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Buccaneers project to run 64.0 total plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.Tampa Bay is a 11.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.The Atlanta Falcons have ranked #25 against the run this year, holding opponents to 128 yards per game on the ground.Falcons safeties have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 7.8% of the time this season, ranking as the #30 most in the league.
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CONS:
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Fournette has been the #18-leading rusher this season, tallying 56 yards per game on the ground.Tampa Bay has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 28.3% of the time in a neutral context (#32 in the NFL), and they project to run 28.3% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 32.1% of the time in this contest (#27 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has ranked #17 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Fournette is projected for 0.8% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #15-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.In terms of efficiency, Atlanta's defense has allowed 4.56 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#19-least in football).Falcons defensive ends have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Falcons defensive tackles have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Falcons linebackers have ranked #20 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have faced a stacked box 12.7% of the time this season -- #21-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 60.1 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.9% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$5.14 and with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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