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Laviska Shenault Jr. Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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Right now, Laviska Shenault Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 34.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Shenault ranks in the #72 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 71.8% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of earning targets, Shenault ranks in the #77 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 18.6% of passes this season.In a neutral context, Jacksonville has run the #1-fastest paced offense this season.The Jaguars are a 17.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects Jacksonville to drop back to pass on 63.7% of their plays in this game (#5-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Jacksonville's O-Line grades out as the #11-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Shenault open.
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CONS:
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Shenault ranks in the #12 percentile and has put up 6.00 yards per target this season.The Patriots's pass defense ranks #4-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 134 yards per game this season.The New England Patriots have allowed 7.66 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #8-highest among NFL opponents.The New England Patriots rank #4-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 60.7%.As a unit, the Patriots safeties rank #3 in pass coverage.The Jacksonville Jaguars are projected to run 58.8 plays in this matchup, the #31-most on the game slate.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Jaguars have faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the league this year (11.1%).
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of route running, Shenault ranks in the #65 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 74.8% of Jacksonville's dropbacks this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Shenault for a 0.1% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Shenault's 64.8% completion rate marks him in the #50 percentile among receivers.As a unit, the Patriots cornerbacks rank #18 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 60.3% of the time (#18 in the NFL).Jacksonville has run play-action on 25.9% of their passes this year, #15-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Shenault to exceed his player prop total 53.1% of the time. He projects for 37.7 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.75 with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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