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Laviska Shenault Jr. Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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Laviska Shenault Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Shenault has been on the field for 71.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #76 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 75.0% of Jacksonville's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #68 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 18.8% -- #78 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Tennessee's defense has allowed 197 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#1-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #8-most yards per target (9.11) against the Titans this season.The Titans have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 68.5% of their targets this season, (#9-most in the league).The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #1-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Jacksonville is a 9.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 6.03 yards per target this season, ranking in the #12 percentile.Jacksonville has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the #3 unit in pass coverage.The Jaguars project to run 60.8 plays in this contest, the #23-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 59.1% of the time in a neutral context (#23 in the NFL).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Jacksonville has faced the #24-most stacked boxes in the league this year (11.1%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Shenault is projected for 0.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #66 percentile among wide receivers.Shenault has been in the #54 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 65.0% completion rate.Tennessee Titans cornerbacks rank as the #14 unit in pass coverage.This offenses projects to pass 59.7% of the time in this contest (#15 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Shenault's offensive line has been #13 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run play-action on 25.9% of their passes this year, #15-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 40.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 47.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$2.17 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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