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Laviska Shenault Jr.

Laviska Shenault Jr. Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons
Laviska Shenault Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 43.3 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 42.5 @ -110.
  • Shenault has been on the field for 73.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #76 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 75.2% of Jacksonville's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #70 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 18.5% -- #75 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • The Falcons have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 71.1% of their targets this season, (#3-most in the league).
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #1-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Jaguars project to run 63.3 plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.

  • CONS:
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 6.08 yards per target this season, ranking in the #5 percentile.
  • Jacksonville has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Jacksonville has faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the league this year (11.4%).

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Shenault is projected for 1.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #80 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Shenault has been in the #45 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 66.0% completion rate.
  • Atlanta's defense has allowed 158 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#18-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #18-most yards per target (8.43) against the Falcons this season.
  • Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks rank as the #13 unit in pass coverage.
  • Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the #21 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offense passes the ball 59.9% of the time in a neutral context (#22 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 57.5% of the time in this contest (#22 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
  • Shenault's offensive line has been #16 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Jacksonville Jaguars have run play-action on 26.0% of their passes this year, #16-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 46.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.3% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.65 and with a negative ROI of -2%.

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