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Kirk Cousins Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Kirk Cousins Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 258.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 249.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 258.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Cousins has passed for 275 yards per game this year, #8-best in the league.He's been the #11-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.3% clip.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #10-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Vikings offensive line has given Kirk Cousins 2.39 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Minnesota have faced the #3-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#20.8%).The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #29-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #32-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #24-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box on 19.3% of their plays this season, #5-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Minnesota has played in 8 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#3-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Minnesota is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Kirk Cousins's offensive line has been #31 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Minnesota Vikings have run play-action on 23.3% of their passes this year, #25-most in the NFL.Steelers defensive ends have ranked #6 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Efficiency-wise, Cousins has been #16 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.41 yards per target.The Vikings project to run 63.3 plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 60.1% of the time in a neutral context (#20 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 59.7% of the time in this contest (#16 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Pittsburgh Steelers enter this game with the #13-best pass defense this season, allowing 243 yards per game through the air.The Steelers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.9% of their targets, ranking #17 in the NFL.Pittsburgh's defense has been #20-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.92 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.Steelers defensive tackles have ranked #18 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Steelers linebackers have ranked #13 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 299.5 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 64.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $23.01. It's return on investment would yeild 20%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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