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Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
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Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 11.29 yards per target this season, ranking in the #97 percentile.Bourne has been in the #98 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 83.8% completion rate.The Patriots project to run 63.8 plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.New England is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.Bourne's offensive line has been #11 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New England has faced the #1-most stacked boxes in the league this year (26.0%).
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CONS:
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Buffalo's defense has allowed 128 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#32-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #32-most yards per target (6.13) against the Bills this season.The Bills have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 60.8% of their targets this season, (#28-most in the league).Buffalo Bills cornerbacks rank as the #3 unit in pass coverage.Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the #1 unit in pass coverage.The New England Patriots have had the #24-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offenses projects to pass 55.3% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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Bourne has been on the field for 45.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #47 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 67.5% of New England's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #59 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 13.5% -- #58 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Bourne is projected for 1.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #78 percentile among wide receivers.This offense passes the ball 61.1% of the time in a neutral context (#18 in the NFL).The Patriots offensive line has given the QB 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#13-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New England Patriots have run play-action on 26.3% of their passes this year, #14-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 28.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$5.69 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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