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Keenan Allen Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Keenan Allen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 82.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 83.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 82.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Allen has been on the field for 87.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #95 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 92.2% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #90 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 27.1% -- #96 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Allen has been in the #79 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 71.7% completion rate.Los Angeles has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Houston's defense has allowed 170 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#8-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #1-most yards per target (9.45) against the Texans this season.The Texans have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.8% of their targets this season, (#7-most in the league).Houston Texans cornerbacks rank as the #31 unit in pass coverage.Houston Texans safeties rank as the #32 unit in pass coverage.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #6-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Chargers project to run 65.0 plays in this contest, the #6-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 67.0% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL).The Chargers offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Chargers have run play-action on 29.3% of their passes this year, #8-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles has faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.4%).
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CONS:
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Los Angeles is a 13.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Allen is projected for 2.9% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #81 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.11 yards per target this season, ranking in the #52 percentile.This offenses projects to pass 61.0% of the time in this contest (#14 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Allen's offensive line has been #14 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 90.4 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.9% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $2.95. It's return on investment would yeild 3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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