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Keelan Cole Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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Keelan Cole Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Cole is projected for 10.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.97 yards per target this season, ranking in the #73 percentile.Opposing wideouts have put up the #4-most yards per target (9.28) against the Jaguars this season.The Jaguars have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 75.3% of their targets this season, (#1-most in the league).Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks rank as the #24 unit in pass coverage.The New York Jets have had the #5-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
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CONS:
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Cole has been in the #22 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 57.9% completion rate.This offenses projects to pass 57.5% of the time in this contest (#25 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Jets offensive line has given the QB 2.54 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#24-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Jets have run play-action on 21.8% of their passes this year, #28-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York has faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.6%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Cole has been on the field for 51.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #55 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 55.0% of New York's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #51 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 9.0% -- #49 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Jacksonville's defense has allowed 160 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#12-most in football).Jacksonville Jaguars safeties rank as the #12 unit in pass coverage.The Jets project to run 63.0 plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 62.3% of the time in a neutral context (#12 in the NFL).Cole's offensive line has been #18 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 48.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.1% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $12.15. It's return on investment would yeild 11%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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