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Justin Herbert Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos
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Right now, Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 263.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 275.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 263.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, at #5-best in the league, Herbert has passed for287 yards per game.In terms of efficiency, Herbert has been #13 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.46 yards per target.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #5-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 67.1% of the time (#4 in the NFL).Los Angeles's offensive has kept pressure off Justin Herbert for 2.40 seconds on average this year (#7-most in the NFL).Los Angeles has run play-action on 29.3% of their passes this year, #8-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Chargers have faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.4%).The Denver Broncos have had the #25-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Denver's defensive ends rank #23 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Denver's linebackers rank #27 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, the Chargers have played in 9 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #4-most in football and means Herbert's numbers may be artificially inflated.The Chargers are a 8.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.Denver's #7-ranked pass defense has allowed 227 passing yards per game this year.Denver has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.1% of their targets, which ranks them #3-best in the NFL.The Denver Broncos have had the #4-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Broncos, they've stacked the box on 8.9% of their plays this season, #27-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #16-best in the league, completing passes at a 66.6% clip.The Los Angeles Chargers are projected to run 62.6 plays in this matchup, the #20-most on the game slate.THE BLITZ projects Los Angeles to drop back to pass on 61.6% of their plays in this game (#13-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Los Angeles's O-Line grades out as the #14-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.In terms of passing efficiency, Denver's defense is #11-best. This is because they allowed 7.40 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Denver Broncos have had the #18-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Denver's defensive tackles rank #19 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Herbert to exceed his player prop total 54.3% of the time. He projects for 275.7 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $1.85. That makes its return on investment yield +2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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