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Justin Fields Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears
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Justin Fields Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 182.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 184.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 182.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Chicago is a 12.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
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CONS:
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Fields has passed for 141 yards per game this year, #37-best in the league.He's been the #34-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 58.9% clip.The Bears project to run 60.1 plays in this contest, the #27-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 57.2% of the time in a neutral context (#30 in the NFL).The Green Bay Packers enter this game with the #10-best pass defense this season, allowing 235 yards per game through the air.The Packers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66.7% of their targets, ranking #6 in the NFL.Green Bay's defense has been #4-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.07 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Green Bay Packers have had the #5-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Packers defensive tackles have ranked #4 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Packers linebackers have ranked #8 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box on 5.5% of their plays this season, #31-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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Efficiency-wise, Fields has been #22 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.10 yards per target.Chicago has played in the #14-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Chicago Bears have had the #21-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offenses projects to pass 55.7% of the time in this contest (#21 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Justin Fields's offensive line has been #22 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Bears offensive line has given Justin Fields 2.44 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Chicago Bears have run play-action on 26.9% of their passes this year, #13-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Chicago have faced the #19-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#13.2%).The Green Bay Packers have had the #19-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Green Bay Packers have had the #11-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Packers defensive ends have ranked #15 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 189.8 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.9% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.24 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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