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Julio Jones Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans
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Right now, Julio Jones Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 28.5 (-130/100), with an implied projection of 30.5 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 29.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ 100.
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PROS:
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In terms of earning targets, Jones ranks in the #67 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 14.6% of passes this season.Jones ranks in the #80 percentile and has put up 9.26 yards per target this season.This year, the Titans have played in 3 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #19-most in football and means Jones's numbers may be artificially inflated.The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.The Texans's pass defense ranks #27-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 168 yards per game this season.The Houston Texans have allowed 9.48 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #32-highest among NFL opponents.The Houston Texans rank #24-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 67.9%.As a unit, the Texans cornerbacks rank #30 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Texans safeties rank #32 in pass coverage.Tennessee's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.32 seconds on average this year (#2-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Tennessee has run play-action on 28.5% of their passes this year, #11-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Titans have faced the #2-most stacked boxes in the league this year (22.7%).
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CONS:
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In a neutral context, Tennessee has run the #27-fastest paced offense this season.The Titans are a 10.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 55.2% of the time (#31 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Tennessee to drop back to pass on 52.3% of their plays in this game (#26-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Tennessee's O-Line grades out as the #27-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Jones open.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Jones ranks in the #52 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 49.3% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Jones ranks in the #60 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 67.2% of Tennessee's dropbacks this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Jones for a 0.1% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Jones's 68.1% completion rate marks him in the #63 percentile among receivers.The Tennessee Titans are projected to run 62.0 plays in this matchup, the #18-most on the game slate.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Jones to exceed his player prop total 64.5% of the time. He projects for 43.5 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $18.26. That makes its return on investment yield +14%.
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