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Julio Jones

Julio Jones Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans
Julio Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 52.5 @ -115.
  • His target share this season has been 18.2% -- #74 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.69 yards per target this season, ranking in the #83 percentile.
  • Jones has been in the #71 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 69.3% completion rate.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks rank as the #29 unit in pass coverage.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers safeties rank as the #32 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Titans offensive line has given the QB 2.32 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#2-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tennessee Titans have run play-action on 28.5% of their passes this year, #11-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tennessee has faced the #2-most stacked boxes in the league this year (22.7%).

  • CONS:
  • The Tennessee Titans have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • This offense passes the ball 56.5% of the time in a neutral context (#31 in the NFL).
  • Jones's offensive line has been #29 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

  • Jones has been on the field for 56.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #59 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 70.2% of Tennessee's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #63 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jones is projected for 2.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #77 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Pittsburgh's defense has allowed 155 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#19-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #15-most yards per target (8.39) against the Steelers this season.
  • The Steelers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 65.4% of their targets this season, (#22-most in the league).
  • The Titans project to run 62.7 plays in this contest, the #18-most of the week.
  • This offenses projects to pass 56.5% of the time in this contest (#21 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 54.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.7% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.87 and with a negative ROI of -3%.

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