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Josh Reynolds

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions
Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -115.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Reynolds is projected for 5.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Atlanta's defense has allowed 167 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#9-most in football).
  • The Falcons have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 70.1% of their targets this season, (#3-most in the league).
  • Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the #31 unit in pass coverage.
  • Detroit is a 7.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.

  • CONS:
  • Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks rank as the #9 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offense passes the ball 57.7% of the time in a neutral context (#28 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 58.4% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Detroit Lions have run play-action on 18.7% of their passes this year, #31-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Detroit has faced the #23-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.4%).

  • Reynolds has been on the field for 46.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #47 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 60.5% of Detroit's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #57 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 12.5% -- #58 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.58 yards per target this season, ranking in the #63 percentile.
  • Reynolds has been in the #53 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 65.6% completion rate.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #14-most yards per target (8.31) against the Falcons this season.
  • The Detroit Lions have had the #17-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Lions project to run 62.9 plays in this contest, the #18-most of the week.
  • Reynolds's offensive line has been #17 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Lions offensive line has given the QB 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#13-most time in the league).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 47.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 63.0% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $20.54. It's return on investment would yeild 18%.

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