| |
Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Reynolds is projected for 5.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers.Atlanta's defense has allowed 167 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#9-most in football).The Falcons have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 70.1% of their targets this season, (#3-most in the league).Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the #31 unit in pass coverage.Detroit is a 7.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks rank as the #9 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 57.7% of the time in a neutral context (#28 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 58.4% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Detroit Lions have run play-action on 18.7% of their passes this year, #31-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Detroit has faced the #23-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.4%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
Reynolds has been on the field for 46.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #47 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 60.5% of Detroit's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #57 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 12.5% -- #58 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.58 yards per target this season, ranking in the #63 percentile.Reynolds has been in the #53 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 65.6% completion rate.Opposing wideouts have put up the #14-most yards per target (8.31) against the Falcons this season.The Detroit Lions have had the #17-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Lions project to run 62.9 plays in this contest, the #18-most of the week.Reynolds's offensive line has been #17 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Lions offensive line has given the QB 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#13-most time in the league).
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 47.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 63.0% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $20.54. It's return on investment would yeild 18%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
