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Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Right now, Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 19.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 16.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Palmer for a 4.3% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Palmer ranks in the #67 percentile and has put up 8.66 yards per target this season.Palmer's 75.4% completion rate marks him in the #89 percentile among receivers.The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.The Las Vegas Raiders rank #23-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 67.4%.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #5-fastest paced offense this season.The Los Angeles Chargers are projected to run 64.6 plays in this matchup, the #6-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 66.2% of the time (#4 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Los Angeles to drop back to pass on 64.2% of their plays in this game (#7-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Los Angeles's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.40 seconds on average this year (#7-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Los Angeles has run play-action on 29.3% of their passes this year, #8-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Chargers have faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.4%).
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CONS:
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The Raiders's pass defense ranks #2-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 129 yards per game this season.The Las Vegas Raiders have allowed 7.34 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #4-highest among NFL opponents.The Chargers enter as a 3.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Palmer ranks in the #37 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 34.6% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Palmer ranks in the #35 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 36.8% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Palmer ranks in the #37 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 6.7% of passes this season.As a unit, the Raiders cornerbacks rank #15 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Raiders safeties rank #17 in pass coverage.Los Angeles's O-Line grades out as the #12-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Palmer open.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Palmer to exceed his player prop total 65.2% of the time. He projects for 33.5 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $25.22. That makes its return on investment yield +22%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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