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Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game
Cincinnati Bengals vs Las Vegas Raiders
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Right now, Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 60.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 61.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 60.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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His 63.2% snap rate this year puts him in the #95 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 64.9% this year puts him in the #94 percentile among running backs.This week, THE BLITZ projects Jacobs for a 13.7% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Raiders have played in 13 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #1-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #10-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 35.7% of their plays.The linebackers of Cincinnati have been the #28-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Jacobs finds himself in the #79 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 58 yards.The Raiders enter as a 6.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.Las Vegas has been the #25-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 36.2% run rate in a neutral context.The Bengals defense has allowed 103 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #5-least in football.The defensive tackles of Cincinnati have been the #7-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Las Vegas's ranks #21 in that regard this season.In a neutral context, Las Vegas has run the #22-fastest paced offense this season.The Las Vegas Raiders are projected to run 60.9 plays in this matchup, the #12-most on the game slate.The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed 4.37 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #15-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Cincinnati have been the #22-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Cincinnati have been the #19-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Jacobs to exceed his player prop total 63.8% of the time. He projects for 80.6 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $24.04. That makes its return on investment yield +22%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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