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Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders
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Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 58.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 53.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 60.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #91 percentile among running backs.He has received 60.6% of Las Vegas's carries this year -- #11 percentile when it comes to running backs.Las Vegas has played in 10 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#1-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.In terms of efficiency, Kansas City's defense has allowed 4.71 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#26-least in football).Chiefs defensive tackles have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Chiefs linebackers have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Chiefs safeties have ranked #32 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 8.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #28 most in the league.
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CONS:
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Las Vegas is a 9.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offense runs the ball 34.4% of the time in a neutral context (#26 in the NFL), and they project to run 34.4% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 35.3% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Las Vegas Raiders have faced a stacked box 16.3% of the time this season -- #9-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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Jacobs has been the #29-leading rusher this season, tallying 47 yards per game on the ground.The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line has ranked #21 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jacobs is projected for 7.0% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #20-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Raiders project to run 63.5 total plays in this contest, the #13-most of the week.The Kansas City Chiefs have ranked #15 against the run this year, holding opponents to 113 yards per game on the ground.Chiefs defensive ends have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 71.5 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 63.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $21.61. It's return on investment would yeild 19%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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