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Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Las Vegas Raiders vs Washington Football Team
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Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 55.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 58.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 58.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #86 percentile among running backs.He has received 58.8% of Las Vegas's carries this year -- #12 percentile when it comes to running backs.Las Vegas has played in 9 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#1-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.WFT linebackers have ranked #30 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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This offense runs the ball 35.0% of the time in a neutral context (#26 in the NFL), and they project to run 35.0% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 35.3% of the time in this contest (#24 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Washington Football Team have ranked #6 against the run this year, holding opponents to 95 yards per game on the ground.WFT defensive ends have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.WFT defensive tackles have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.WFT safeties have ranked #8 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Las Vegas Raiders have faced a stacked box 16.3% of the time this season -- #9-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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Jacobs has been the #28-leading rusher this season, tallying 47 yards per game on the ground.The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line has ranked #21 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jacobs is projected for 6.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #21-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Raiders project to run 62.6 total plays in this contest, the #15-most of the week.In terms of efficiency, Washington's defense has allowed 4.32 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#12-least in football).The Washington Football Team have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 13.2% of the time this season, ranking as the #20 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 61.4 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.62 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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