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Josh Allen Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - AFC Divisional Round Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills
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Right now, Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 281.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 275.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 281.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This year, at #5-best in the league, Allen has passed for279 yards per game.In terms of efficiency, Allen has been #13 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.35 yards per target.This year, the Bills have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The Buffalo Bills are projected to run 62.9 plays in this matchup, the #4-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 67.6% of the time (#3 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Buffalo to drop back to pass on 61.7% of their plays in this game (#6-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Kansas City's #30-ranked pass defense has allowed 260 passing yards per game this year.Kansas City has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.7% of their targets, which ranks them #26-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Kansas City's defense is #25-best. This is because they allowed 8.11 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #24-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Kansas City's defensive tackles rank #29 this season.
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CONS:
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The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #7-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #18-best in the league, completing passes at a 65.7% clip.In a neutral context, Buffalo has run the #18-fastest paced offense this season.Buffalo's O-Line grades out as the #17-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #11-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Kansas City's defensive ends rank #12 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Kansas City's linebackers rank #16 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Allen to exceed his player prop total 48.3% of the time. He projects for 276.8 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$1.51 with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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