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Jordan Howard Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
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Jordan Howard Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 51.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line has ranked #10 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Philadelphia has played in 5 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#11-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.Philadelphia is a 11.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offense runs the ball 46.0% of the time in a neutral context (#1 in the NFL), and they project to run 46.0% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 53.1% of the time in this contest (#1 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The New York Giants have ranked #26 against the run this year, holding opponents to 127 yards per game on the ground.The New York Giants have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 8.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #29 most in the league.
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CONS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Howard is projected for -10.1% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Giants defensive ends have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #15-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Eagles project to run 63.5 total plays in this contest, the #13-most of the week.In terms of efficiency, New York's defense has allowed 4.58 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#21-least in football).Giants defensive tackles have ranked #20 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Giants linebackers have ranked #22 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Giants safeties have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Philadelphia Eagles have faced a stacked box 14.0% of the time this season -- #16-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 34.1 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 39.4% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $15.25. It's return on investment would yeild 13%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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