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Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
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Right now, Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 119.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 115.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 119.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Indianapolis's ranks #4 in that regard this season.His 68.9% snap rate this year puts him in the #98 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 70.6% this year puts him in the #96 percentile among running backs.This year, the Colts have played in 9 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #5-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.The Colts are a 14.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.Indianapolis has been the #7-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 41.7% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #1-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 51.0% of their plays.The Jaguars defense has allowed 135 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #27-least in football.The Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed 4.70 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #25-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Jacksonville have been the #32-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Jacksonville have been the #25-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Jacksonville have been the #26-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Taylor finds himself in the #99 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 108 yards.In a neutral context, Indianapolis has run the #31-fastest paced offense this season.The Indianapolis Colts are projected to run 61.4 plays in this matchup, the #26-most on the game slate.The Jaguars have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #6-most in the NFL this year at 18.8% of the time.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Taylor for a 8.0% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The defensive tackles of Jacksonville have been the #21-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Indianapolis has faced the #18-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (13.6% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Taylor to exceed his player prop total 55.6% of the time. He projects for 132.0 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $4.58. That makes its return on investment yield +4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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