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Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 80.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 79.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 80.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Taylor has been the #3-leading rusher this season, tallying 101 yards per game on the ground.The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has ranked #6 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 63.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #95 percentile among running backs.He has received 64.9% of Indianapolis's carries this year -- #6 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Colts project to run 63.9 total plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.Buccaneers linebackers have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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Indianapolis has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher likelihood of the Colts passing the ball more than usual.The Indianapolis Colts have had the #28-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Indianapolis is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offenses projects to runs 37.9% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have ranked #1 against the run this year, holding opponents to 76 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Tampa Bay's defense has allowed 3.75 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#2-least in football).Buccaneers safeties have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Taylor is projected for 8.0% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #81 percentile among running backs.This offense runs the ball 39.4% of the time in a neutral context (#13 in the NFL), and they project to run 39.4% of the time in this contest.Buccaneers defensive ends have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Buccaneers defensive tackles have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Indianapolis Colts have faced a stacked box 15.8% of the time this season -- #12-most in football.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 13.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #21 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 91.9 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.9% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $7.38. It's return on investment would yeild 6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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