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Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 22 - Super Bowl LVI
Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams
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Right now, Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 58.5 (-115/-105), with an implied projection of 59.5 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 65.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 58.5 @ -105.
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PROS:
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His 64.4% snap rate this year puts him in the #96 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 76.4% this year puts him in the #98 percentile among running backs.This year, the Bengals have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Cincinnati's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to run 62.3 plays in this matchup, the #1-most on the game slate.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #1-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 36.0% of their plays.
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CONS:
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Mixon finds himself in the #93 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 76 yards.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 1-mph wind in this game.In a neutral context, Cincinnati has run the #28-fastest paced offense this season.The Bengals enter as a 4.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.Cincinnati has been the #23-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 37.6% run rate in a neutral context.The Rams defense has allowed 104 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #6-least in football.The Los Angeles Rams have allowed 4.06 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #5-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Los Angeles have been the #1-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of Los Angeles have been the #3-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Los Angeles have been the #2-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Cincinnati's ranks #16 in that regard this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Mixon for a 1.4% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The linebackers of Los Angeles have been the #12-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Mixon to exceed his player prop total 61.6% of the time. He projects for 74.6 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $17.46. That makes its return on investment yield +15%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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