| |
Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 21 - AFC Championship Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right now, Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 56.5 (-105/-115), with an implied projection of 55.6 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 68.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 56.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
His 64.4% snap rate this year puts him in the #97 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 76.4% this year puts him in the #98 percentile among running backs.This year, the Bengals have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Cincinnati's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to run 62.3 plays in this matchup, the #3-most on the game slate.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #2-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 37.1% of their plays.The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed 4.80 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #27-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Kansas City have been the #30-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Kansas City have been the #32-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Mixon finds himself in the #93 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 76 yards.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 3-mph wind in this game.In a neutral context, Cincinnati has run the #28-fastest paced offense this season.The Bengals are a 7.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.Cincinnati has been the #23-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 37.6% run rate in a neutral context.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Cincinnati's ranks #16 in that regard this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Mixon for a 0.2% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Chiefs defense has allowed 115 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #21-least in football.The defensive ends of Kansas City have been the #21-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Kansas City have been the #17-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ projects Mixon to exceed his player prop total 70.2% of the time. He projects for 87.1 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $38.85. That makes its return on investment yield +37%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
