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Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - AFC Divisional Round Game
Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals
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Right now, Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 56.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 66.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 56.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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His 64.4% snap rate this year puts him in the #97 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 76.4% this year puts him in the #98 percentile among running backs.This year, the Bengals have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Cincinnati's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to run 60.5 plays in this matchup, the #8-most on the game slate.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #4-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 37.7% of their plays.
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CONS:
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Mixon finds himself in the #93 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 76 yards.In a neutral context, Cincinnati has run the #28-fastest paced offense this season.The Bengals enter as a 4.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.Cincinnati has been the #23-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 37.6% run rate in a neutral context.The Titans defense has allowed 85 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #2-least in football.The Tennessee Titans have allowed 3.97 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #3-best in the metric this season.The safeties of Tennessee have been the #4-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Cincinnati's ranks #16 in that regard this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Mixon for a 1.6% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The defensive ends of Tennessee have been the #15-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of Tennessee have been the #19-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Tennessee have been the #22-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Mixon to exceed his player prop total 65.1% of the time. He projects for 77.8 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $26.71. That makes its return on investment yield +24%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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