reorder

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game

Cincinnati Bengals vs Las Vegas Raiders

Right now, Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 75.5 (-110/-110).

The money is on the Over: it opened 71.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 75.5 @ -110.

PROS:

His 64.4% snap rate this year puts him in the #97 percentile among running backs.

His carry rate of 76.4% this year puts him in the #98 percentile among running backs.

The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to run 62.6 plays in this matchup, the #10-most on the game slate.

The Bengals enter as a 6.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #2-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 43.0% of their plays.

The defensive ends of Las Vegas have been the #27-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.

The defensive tackles of Las Vegas have been the #31-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.

The safeties of Las Vegas have been the #24-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.

CONS:

Mixon finds himself in the #94 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 76 yards.

In a neutral context, Cincinnati has run the #28-fastest paced offense this season.

Cincinnati has been the #23-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 37.6% run rate in a neutral context.

The Las Vegas Raiders have allowed 4.22 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #8-best in the metric this season.

The linebackers of Las Vegas have been the #7-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.

NEUTRAL:

The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Cincinnati's ranks #16 in that regard this season.

This week, THE BLITZ projects Mixon for a 1.1% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.

This year, the Bengals have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Cincinnati's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.

The Raiders defense has allowed 112 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #17-least in football.

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ projects Mixon to exceed his player prop total 62.9% of the time. He projects for 97.3 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.

According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $22.15. That makes its return on investment yield +20%.

ABOUT WRITENOW™

Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.