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Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game
Cincinnati Bengals vs Las Vegas Raiders
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Right now, Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 75.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 71.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 75.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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His 64.4% snap rate this year puts him in the #97 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 76.4% this year puts him in the #98 percentile among running backs.The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to run 62.6 plays in this matchup, the #10-most on the game slate.The Bengals enter as a 6.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #2-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 43.0% of their plays.The defensive ends of Las Vegas have been the #27-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of Las Vegas have been the #31-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Las Vegas have been the #24-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Mixon finds himself in the #94 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 76 yards.In a neutral context, Cincinnati has run the #28-fastest paced offense this season.Cincinnati has been the #23-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 37.6% run rate in a neutral context.The Las Vegas Raiders have allowed 4.22 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #8-best in the metric this season.The linebackers of Las Vegas have been the #7-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Cincinnati's ranks #16 in that regard this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Mixon for a 1.1% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Bengals have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Cincinnati's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.The Raiders defense has allowed 112 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #17-least in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Mixon to exceed his player prop total 62.9% of the time. He projects for 97.3 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $22.15. That makes its return on investment yield +20%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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