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Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs
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Right now, Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 71.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 70.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 71.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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His 63.9% snap rate this year puts him in the #95 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 76.9% this year puts him in the #98 percentile among running backs.This year, the Bengals have played in the #22-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Cincinnati's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed 4.72 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #26-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Kansas City have been the #24-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of Kansas City have been the #28-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Kansas City have been the #30-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Chiefs have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #28-most in the NFL this year at 8.7% of the time.
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CONS:
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Mixon finds himself in the #93 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 78 yards.In a neutral context, Cincinnati has run the #29-fastest paced offense this season.The Bengals enter as a 3.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.Cincinnati has faced the #8-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (16.5% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Cincinnati's ranks #15 in that regard this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Mixon for a -2.4% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to run 63.5 plays in this matchup, the #11-most on the game slate.Cincinnati has been the #20-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 38.4% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #17-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 40.2% of their plays.The Chiefs defense has allowed 114 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #17-least in football.The linebackers of Kansas City have been the #18-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Mixon to exceed his player prop total 64.4% of the time. He projects for 95.1 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $23.37. That makes its return on investment yield +20%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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