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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
 
 
 
Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 73.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 67.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 73.5 @ -115.
PROS:
  • He has been on the field for 62.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #94 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 76.3% of Cincinnati's carries this year -- #3 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Cincinnati has played in the #22-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • Cincinnati is a 7.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • This offenses projects to runs 42.9% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Ravens defensive tackles have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • CONS:
  • Mixon has been the #6-leading rusher this season, tallying 79 yards per game on the ground.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #28-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Bengals project to run 61.3 total plays in this contest, the #25-most of the week.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have ranked #2 against the run this year, holding opponents to 86 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Baltimore's defense has allowed 3.99 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#5-least in football).
  • Ravens defensive ends have ranked #6 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Cincinnati Bengals have faced a stacked box 16.5% of the time this season -- #8-most in football.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 18.4% of the time this season, ranking as the #8 most in the league.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has ranked #15 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Mixon is projected for 0.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • This offense runs the ball 39.8% of the time in a neutral context (#15 in the NFL), and they project to run 39.8% of the time in this contest.
  • Ravens linebackers have ranked #14 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Ravens safeties have ranked #15 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 89.6 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.1% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $14.22. It's return on investment would yeild 12%.
     
     
     
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