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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 73.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 67.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 73.5 @ -115.
  • He has been on the field for 62.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #94 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 76.3% of Cincinnati's carries this year -- #3 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Cincinnati has played in the #22-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • Cincinnati is a 7.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • This offenses projects to runs 42.9% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Ravens defensive tackles have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • CONS:
  • Mixon has been the #6-leading rusher this season, tallying 79 yards per game on the ground.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #28-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Bengals project to run 61.3 total plays in this contest, the #25-most of the week.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have ranked #2 against the run this year, holding opponents to 86 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Baltimore's defense has allowed 3.99 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#5-least in football).
  • Ravens defensive ends have ranked #6 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Cincinnati Bengals have faced a stacked box 16.5% of the time this season -- #8-most in football.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 18.4% of the time this season, ranking as the #8 most in the league.

  • The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has ranked #15 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Mixon is projected for 0.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • This offense runs the ball 39.8% of the time in a neutral context (#15 in the NFL), and they project to run 39.8% of the time in this contest.
  • Ravens linebackers have ranked #14 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Ravens safeties have ranked #15 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 89.6 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.1% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $14.22. It's return on investment would yeild 12%.

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