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Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Cincinnati Bengals vs San Francisco 49ers
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Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 76.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 78.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 76.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 62.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #93 percentile among running backs.He has received 77.4% of Cincinnati's carries this year -- #3 percentile when it comes to running backs.Cincinnati has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The San Francisco 49ers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 9.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #26 most in the league.
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CONS:
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Mixon has been the #6-leading rusher this season, tallying 82 yards per game on the ground.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #29-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.49ers linebackers have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.49ers safeties have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Cincinnati Bengals have faced a stacked box 16.5% of the time this season -- #8-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has ranked #15 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Mixon is projected for -3.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Bengals project to run 61.6 total plays in this contest, the #19-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 39.7% of the time in a neutral context (#14 in the NFL), and they project to run 39.7% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 40.4% of the time in this contest (#13 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The San Francisco 49ers have ranked #20 against the run this year, holding opponents to 115 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, San Francisco's defense has allowed 4.56 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#22-least in football).49ers defensive ends have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.49ers defensive tackles have ranked #11 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 82.7 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.0% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $1.16. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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