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Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 92.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 85.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 92.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 62.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #93 percentile among running backs.He has received 77.0% of Cincinnati's carries this year -- #3 percentile when it comes to running backs.Cincinnati has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Bengals project to run 63.7 total plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.Cincinnati is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offenses projects to runs 42.6% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Los Angeles Chargers have ranked #32 against the run this year, holding opponents to 150 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Los Angeles's defense has allowed 4.94 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#31-least in football).Chargers defensive ends have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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Mixon has been the #6-leading rusher this season, tallying 84 yards per game on the ground.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #30-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Cincinnati Bengals have faced a stacked box 16.5% of the time this season -- #8-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has ranked #16 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Mixon is projected for -0.1% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.This offense runs the ball 39.6% of the time in a neutral context (#14 in the NFL), and they project to run 39.6% of the time in this contest.Chargers defensive tackles have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Chargers linebackers have ranked #15 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Chargers safeties have ranked #14 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.6% of the time this season, ranking as the #13 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 99.8 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $1.25. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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