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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers
Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 92.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 85.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 92.5 @ -115.
  • He has been on the field for 62.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #93 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 77.0% of Cincinnati's carries this year -- #3 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Cincinnati has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Bengals project to run 63.7 total plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.
  • Cincinnati is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
  • This offenses projects to runs 42.6% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have ranked #32 against the run this year, holding opponents to 150 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Los Angeles's defense has allowed 4.94 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#31-least in football).
  • Chargers defensive ends have ranked #28 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • CONS:
  • Mixon has been the #6-leading rusher this season, tallying 84 yards per game on the ground.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #30-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Cincinnati Bengals have faced a stacked box 16.5% of the time this season -- #8-most in football.

  • The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has ranked #16 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Mixon is projected for -0.1% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • This offense runs the ball 39.6% of the time in a neutral context (#14 in the NFL), and they project to run 39.6% of the time in this contest.
  • Chargers defensive tackles have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Chargers linebackers have ranked #15 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Chargers safeties have ranked #14 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.6% of the time this season, ranking as the #13 most in the league.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 99.8 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.1% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $1.25. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.

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