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Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 72.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 68.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 72.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Mixon has been the #6-leading rusher this season, tallying 76 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 61.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #91 percentile among running backs.He has received 75.3% of Cincinnati's carries this year -- #4 percentile when it comes to running backs.Cincinnati is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offenses projects to runs 42.6% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.The Pittsburgh Steelers have ranked #24 against the run this year, holding opponents to 122 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Pittsburgh's defense has allowed 4.76 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#28-least in football).
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CONS:
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Cincinnati has played in the #19-most low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year. Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #29-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Bengals project to run 61.7 total plays in this contest, the #24-most of the week.Steelers defensive ends have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Steelers defensive tackles have ranked #2 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Cincinnati Bengals have faced a stacked box 17.3% of the time this season -- #7-most in football.The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 19.5% of the time this season, ranking as the #7 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has ranked #17 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Mixon is projected for 2.4% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #75 percentile among running backs.This offense runs the ball 39.4% of the time in a neutral context (#14 in the NFL), and they project to run 39.4% of the time in this contest.Steelers linebackers have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Steelers safeties have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 91.3 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 61.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $17.66. It's return on investment would yeild 15%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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