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Joe Burrow Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Cincinnati Bengals vs San Francisco 49ers
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Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 255.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 261.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 255.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He's been the #9-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.7% clip.Efficiency-wise, Burrow has been #7 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.74 yards per target.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cincinnati have faced the #8-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#16.5%).The 49ers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.5% of their targets, ranking #25 in the NFL.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #25-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.49ers defensive tackles have ranked #25 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.49ers linebackers have ranked #32 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Cincinnati has played in the #20-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #29-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Joe Burrow's offensive line has been #23 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cincinnati Bengals have run play-action on 23.8% of their passes this year, #23-most in the NFL.The San Francisco 49ers enter this game with the #6-best pass defense this season, allowing 229 yards per game through the air.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #10-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #2-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.49ers defensive ends have ranked #5 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The San Francisco 49ers have stacked the box on 9.7% of their plays this season, #26-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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Burrow has passed for 244 yards per game this year, #15-best in the league.The Bengals project to run 61.6 plays in this contest, the #19-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 60.3% of the time in a neutral context (#19 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 59.6% of the time in this contest (#16 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Bengals offensive line has given Joe Burrow 2.42 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.San Francisco's defense has been #14-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.57 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 244.6 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 46.0% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $1.06. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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