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Joe Burrow Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers
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Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 252.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 264.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 252.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He's been the #10-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.4% clip.Efficiency-wise, Burrow has been #8 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.78 yards per target.Cincinnati has played in the #19-most low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year, which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Cincinnati have faced the #7-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#17.3%).The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #23-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #32-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box on 19.5% of their plays this season, #7-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #29-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Bengals project to run 61.7 plays in this contest, the #24-most of the week.Cincinnati is a 3.5-point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offenses projects to pass 57.4% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Steelers defensive ends have ranked #7 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Steelers defensive tackles have ranked #7 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Pittsburgh's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 2 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #8-quickest in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Burrow has passed for 245 yards per game this year, #15-best in the league.This offense passes the ball 60.6% of the time in a neutral context (#19 in the NFL).Joe Burrow's offensive line has been #18 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Bengals offensive line has given Joe Burrow 2.44 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Cincinnati Bengals have run play-action on 24.0% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.The Pittsburgh Steelers enter this game with the #14-best pass defense this season, allowing 248 yards per game through the air.The Steelers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.1% of their targets, ranking #13 in the NFL.Pittsburgh's defense has been #20-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.01 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #14-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Steelers linebackers have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 235.1 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 43.6% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $6.30. It's return on investment would yeild 5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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