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Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers
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Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 244.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 240.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 244.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Garoppolo has passed for 238 yards per game this year, #14-best in the league.He's been the #10-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.4% clip.Efficiency-wise, Garoppolo has been #1 in the NFL this season, averaging 8.28 yards per target.San Francisco has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Jimmy Garoppolo's offensive line has been #5 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The San Francisco 49ers have run play-action on 28.8% of their passes this year, #9-most in the NFL.The Tennessee Titans enter this game with the #27-best pass defense this season, allowing 268 yards per game through the air.Titans defensive tackles have ranked #28 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Titans linebackers have ranked #27 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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The San Francisco 49ers have had the #27-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The 49ers project to run 61.2 plays in this contest, the #26-most of the week.San Francisco is a 3.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offense passes the ball 58.4% of the time in a neutral context (#27 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 57.2% of the time in this contest (#23 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The 49ers offensive line has given Jimmy Garoppolo 2.52 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#23-best in football).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and San Francisco have faced the #26-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.5%).Tennessee's safeties grade out as the #2-best in pass coverage this year.Titans defensive ends have ranked #8 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box on 9.9% of their plays this season, #25-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Titans have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.2% of their targets, ranking #15-best in the NFL.The Tennessee Titans defense ranks #20-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.86.Tennessee's cornerbacks grade out as the #17-best in pass coverage this year.Tennessee's linebackers grade out as the #11-best in pass coverage this year.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Garoppolo putting up 241.7 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.0% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$5.24 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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