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Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons
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Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 243.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 239.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 243.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Efficiency-wise, Garoppolo has been #2 in the NFL this season, averaging 8.17 yards per target.San Francisco has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Jimmy Garoppolo's offensive line has been #6 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The San Francisco 49ers have run play-action on 28.8% of their passes this year, #9-most in the NFL.The Atlanta Falcons enter this game with the #23-best pass defense this season, allowing 265 yards per game through the air.The Falcons have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 73.5% of their targets, ranking #28 in the NFL.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #29-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #29-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Falcons defensive ends have ranked #25 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Falcons defensive tackles have ranked #32 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Falcons linebackers have ranked #29 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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The San Francisco 49ers have had the #26-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.San Francisco is a 9.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offense passes the ball 58.7% of the time in a neutral context (#25 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 55.2% of the time in this contest (#25 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The 49ers offensive line has given Jimmy Garoppolo 2.52 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and San Francisco have faced the #26-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.5%).The Atlanta Falcons have had the #6-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box on 7.8% of their plays this season, #30-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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Garoppolo has passed for 239 yards per game this year, #14-best in the league.He's been the #14-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.9% clip.The 49ers project to run 63.9 plays in this contest, the #11-most of the week.Atlanta's defense has been #17-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.76 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 268.7 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.1% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $12.00. It's return on investment would yeild 10%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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