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Jimmy Garoppolo

Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 15

San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons
 
 
 
Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 243.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 239.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 243.5 @ -115.
PROS:
  • Efficiency-wise, Garoppolo has been #2 in the NFL this season, averaging 8.17 yards per target.
  • San Francisco has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo's offensive line has been #6 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The San Francisco 49ers have run play-action on 28.8% of their passes this year, #9-most in the NFL.
  • The Atlanta Falcons enter this game with the #23-best pass defense this season, allowing 265 yards per game through the air.
  • The Falcons have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 73.5% of their targets, ranking #28 in the NFL.
  • The Atlanta Falcons have had the #29-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • The Atlanta Falcons have had the #29-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Falcons defensive ends have ranked #25 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Falcons defensive tackles have ranked #32 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Falcons linebackers have ranked #29 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • CONS:
  • The San Francisco 49ers have had the #26-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • San Francisco is a 9.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • This offense passes the ball 58.7% of the time in a neutral context (#25 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 55.2% of the time in this contest (#25 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The 49ers offensive line has given Jimmy Garoppolo 2.52 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and San Francisco have faced the #26-most stacked boxes in the league this year (10.5%).
  • The Atlanta Falcons have had the #6-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box on 7.8% of their plays this season, #30-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • Garoppolo has passed for 239 yards per game this year, #14-best in the league.
  • He's been the #14-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.9% clip.
  • The 49ers project to run 63.9 plays in this contest, the #11-most of the week.
  • Atlanta's defense has been #17-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.76 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 268.7 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.1% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $12.00. It's return on investment would yeild 10%.
     
     
     
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