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Jerry Jeudy Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
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Jerry Jeudy Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 51.6 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 51.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 52.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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He has run a route on 75.3% of Denver's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #69 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 21.7% -- #85 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.18 yards per target this season, ranking in the #70 percentile.Jeudy has been in the #94 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 80.3% completion rate.Denver has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Denver is a 8.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.The Broncos offensive line has given the QB 2.55 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#8-most time in the league).
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CONS:
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The Chiefs have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 64.4% of their targets this season, (#25-most in the league).Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks rank as the #6 unit in pass coverage.The Denver Broncos have had the #31-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Broncos project to run 61.2 plays in this contest, the #27-most of the week.
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NEUTRAL:
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Jeudy has been on the field for 61.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #62 percentile among wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jeudy is projected for 0.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #71 percentile among wide receivers.Kansas City's defense has allowed 153 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#22-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #19-most yards per target (8.33) against the Chiefs this season.Kansas City Chiefs safeties rank as the #13 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 61.6% of the time in a neutral context (#15 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 61.6% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Jeudy's offensive line has been #17 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Denver Broncos have run play-action on 25.3% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Denver has faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.4%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 57.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $3.84. It's return on investment would yeild 3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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