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Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - AFC Divisional Round Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills
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Right now, Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 33.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 30.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects McKinnon for a 36.9% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.In a neutral context, Kansas City has run the #10-fastest paced offense this season.The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to run 64.3 plays in this matchup, the #3-most on the game slate.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #7-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 34.1% of their plays.The safeties of Buffalo have been the #31-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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His 20.0% snap rate this year puts him in the #28 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 4.0% this year puts him in the #9 percentile among running backs.This year, the Chiefs have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Kansas City's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 2-mph wind in this game.Kansas City has been the #31-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 29.4% run rate in a neutral context.The Bills defense has allowed 104 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #8-least in football.The Buffalo Bills have allowed 4.12 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #7-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Buffalo have been the #9-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Buffalo have been the #5-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Kansas City's ranks #14 in that regard this season.The defensive ends of Buffalo have been the #14-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects McKinnon to exceed his player prop total 55.8% of the time. He projects for 38.9 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $7.26. That makes its return on investment yield +7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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