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Jeff Wilson

Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Cincinnati Bengals vs San Francisco 49ers
Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 57.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 58.5 @ -115.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Wilson is projected for 27.1% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • This offense runs the ball 42.7% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL), and they project to run 42.7% of the time in this contest.
  • This offenses projects to runs 43.8% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Bengals safeties have ranked #23 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked box 10.5% of the time this season -- #26-most in football.

  • CONS:
  • The San Francisco 49ers offensive line has ranked #31 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • San Francisco has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have ranked #3 against the run this year, holding opponents to 92 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Cincinnati's defense has allowed 4.16 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#8-least in football).
  • Bengals defensive tackles have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • The 49ers project to run 62.8 total plays in this contest, the #16-most of the week.
  • Bengals defensive ends have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Bengals linebackers have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #12 most in the league.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 59.5 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.8% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.78 and with a negative ROI of -5%.

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