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Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Cincinnati Bengals vs San Francisco 49ers
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Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 57.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 58.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Wilson is projected for 27.1% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.This offense runs the ball 42.7% of the time in a neutral context (#4 in the NFL), and they project to run 42.7% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 43.8% of the time in this contest (#9 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Bengals safeties have ranked #23 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked box 10.5% of the time this season -- #26-most in football.
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CONS:
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The San Francisco 49ers offensive line has ranked #31 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.San Francisco has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The San Francisco 49ers have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Cincinnati Bengals have ranked #3 against the run this year, holding opponents to 92 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Cincinnati's defense has allowed 4.16 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#8-least in football).Bengals defensive tackles have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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The 49ers project to run 62.8 total plays in this contest, the #16-most of the week.Bengals defensive ends have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Bengals linebackers have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Cincinnati Bengals have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #12 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 59.5 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.78 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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