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Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Tennessee Titans vs Miami Dolphins
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Right now, Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 68.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 70.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 68.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Waddle ranks in the #89 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 83.6% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Waddle ranks in the #82 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 87.1% of Miami's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Waddle ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 24.8% of passes this season.Waddle's 76.6% completion rate marks him in the #90 percentile among receivers.The Titans's pass defense ranks #32-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 188 yards per game this season.The Tennessee Titans have allowed 8.96 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #26-highest among NFL opponents.The Tennessee Titans rank #27-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 68.9%.The Dolphins enter as a 3.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 64.7% of the time (#8 in the NFL).Miami's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.40 seconds on average this year (#7-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Miami has run play-action on 28.7% of their passes this year, #10-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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Bad weather has been shown to have a negative impact on a receiver's numbers, and the weatherman currently calls for rain in this game.As a unit, the Titans safeties rank #2 in pass coverage.Miami's O-Line grades out as the #28-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Waddle open.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Dolphins have faced the #29-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.8%).
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Waddle for a 0.7% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Waddle ranks in the #41 percentile and has put up 7.83 yards per target this season.As a unit, the Titans cornerbacks rank #17 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Miami has run the #15-fastest paced offense this season.The Miami Dolphins are projected to run 62.7 plays in this matchup, the #18-most on the game slate.THE BLITZ projects Miami to drop back to pass on 59.2% of their plays in this game (#17-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Waddle to exceed his player prop total 42.0% of the time. He projects for 57.7 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $9.66. That makes its return on investment yield +8%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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