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Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers
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Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Waddle has been on the field for 84.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #89 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 87.4% of Miami's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #84 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 22.3% -- #87 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Waddle has been in the #81 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 73.9% completion rate.The Panthers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 72.4% of their targets this season, (#2-most in the league).The Miami Dolphins have had the #5-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 66.6% of the time in a neutral context (#5 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 61.8% of the time in this contest (#10 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.The Dolphins offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Miami Dolphins have run play-action on 29.9% of their passes this year, #8-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.21 yards per target this season, ranking in the #12 percentile.Carolina's defense has allowed 131 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#30-most in football).Waddle's offensive line has been #29 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Miami has faced the #30-most stacked boxes in the league this year (8.1%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Waddle is projected for 1.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #76 percentile among wide receivers.Opposing wideouts have put up the #14-most yards per target (8.53) against the Panthers this season.Carolina Panthers cornerbacks rank as the #14 unit in pass coverage.Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the #16 unit in pass coverage.The Dolphins project to run 62.6 plays in this contest, the #16-most of the week.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 63.0 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.4% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.32. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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