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Jaret Patterson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Washington Football Team vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Right now, Jaret Patterson Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 47.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 48.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 47.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Washington's ranks #6 in that regard this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Patterson for a 39.9% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Washington Football Team are projected to run 64.2 plays in this matchup, the #6-most on the game slate.Washington has been the #10-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 41.1% run rate in a neutral context.The defensive tackles of Philadelphia have been the #32-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Washington has faced the #32-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (5.3% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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CONS:
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His 10.8% snap rate this year puts him in the #13 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 13.0% this year puts him in the #28 percentile among running backs.This year, the WFT have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Offenses generally run more in these types of games, which means Washington could be running a bit less going forward in better conditions.In a neutral context, Washington has run the #23-fastest paced offense this season.The WFT enter as a 6.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.The Philadelphia Eagles have allowed 4.17 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #9-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Philadelphia have been the #7-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Philadelphia have been the #6-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #18-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 39.9% of their plays.The Eagles defense has allowed 108 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #13-least in football.The linebackers of Philadelphia have been the #11-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Eagles have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #14-most in the NFL this year at 15.4% of the time.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Patterson to exceed his player prop total 57.4% of the time. He projects for 56.0 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $8.43. That makes its return on investment yield +7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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