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James Conner Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Arizona Cardinals vs Indianapolis Colts
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James Conner Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 48.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 54.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #81 percentile among running backs.He has received 47.6% of Arizona's carries this year -- #28 percentile when it comes to running backs.Arizona has played in 6 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#9-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.Arizona is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked box 7.5% of the time this season -- #30-most in football.
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CONS:
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Conner has been the #25-leading rusher this season, tallying 50 yards per game on the ground.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher likelihood of the Cardinals passing the ball more than usual.Colts defensive tackles have ranked #5 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Colts linebackers have ranked #1 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has ranked #12 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.The Arizona Cardinals have had the #20-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Cardinals project to run 63.0 total plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 38.7% of the time in a neutral context (#17 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.7% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 41.1% of the time in this contest (#12 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Indianapolis Colts have ranked #12 against the run this year, holding opponents to 108 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Indianapolis's defense has allowed 4.52 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#18-least in football).Colts defensive ends have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Colts safeties have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 14.4% of the time this season, ranking as the #17 most in the league.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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