| |
James Conner Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
James Conner Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 61.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 60.5 @ -115.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has ranked #11 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 52.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #77 percentile among running backs.He has received 46.8% of Arizona's carries this year -- #29 percentile when it comes to running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Conner is projected for 13.0% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Cardinals project to run 67.0 total plays in this contest, the #1-most of the week.Arizona is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked box 7.5% of the time this season -- #30-most in football.The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 4.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #32 most in the league.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Conner has been the #23-leading rusher this season, tallying 53 yards per game on the ground.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher likelihood of the Cardinals passing the ball more than usual.The Los Angeles Rams have ranked #8 against the run this year, holding opponents to 101 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Los Angeles's defense has allowed 3.88 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#2-least in football).Rams defensive ends have ranked #2 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Rams defensive tackles have ranked #1 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Rams linebackers have ranked #7 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Rams safeties have ranked #2 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
Arizona has played in 5 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#10-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Arizona Cardinals have had the #22-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense runs the ball 39.3% of the time in a neutral context (#17 in the NFL), and they project to run 39.3% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 40.4% of the time in this contest (#12 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 67.2 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.1% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $3.42. It's return on investment would yeild 3%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
