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James Conner

James Conner Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams
 
 
 
James Conner Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 61.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 60.5 @ -115.
PROS:
  • The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has ranked #11 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has been on the field for 52.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #77 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 46.8% of Arizona's carries this year -- #29 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Conner is projected for 13.0% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • The Cardinals project to run 67.0 total plays in this contest, the #1-most of the week.
  • Arizona is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked box 7.5% of the time this season -- #30-most in football.
  • The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 4.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #32 most in the league.

  • CONS:
  • Conner has been the #23-leading rusher this season, tallying 53 yards per game on the ground.
  • This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher likelihood of the Cardinals passing the ball more than usual.
  • The Los Angeles Rams have ranked #8 against the run this year, holding opponents to 101 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Los Angeles's defense has allowed 3.88 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#2-least in football).
  • Rams defensive ends have ranked #2 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Rams defensive tackles have ranked #1 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Rams linebackers have ranked #7 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Rams safeties have ranked #2 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • Arizona has played in 5 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#10-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Arizona Cardinals have had the #22-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • This offense runs the ball 39.3% of the time in a neutral context (#17 in the NFL), and they project to run 39.3% of the time in this contest.
  • This offenses projects to runs 40.4% of the time in this contest (#12 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 67.2 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.1% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $3.42. It's return on investment would yeild 3%.
     
     
     
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