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Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals
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Right now, Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 54.5 (105/-145), with an implied projection of 50.3 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 51.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 54.5 @ 105.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Chase ranks in the #96 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 89.7% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Chase ranks in the #98 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 96.2% of Cincinnati's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Chase ranks in the #89 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 24.1% of passes this season.Chase ranks in the #93 percentile and has put up 10.22 yards per target this season.The Bengals enter as a 6.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 62.2% of the time (#11 in the NFL).Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Bengals have faced the #8-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.5%).
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CONS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Chase for a -6.6% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Bengals have played in the #22-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.The weather forecast for this game calls for 19-mph wind. This is important because high winds lead to fewer pass completions.The Cleveland Browns have allowed 7.65 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #8-highest among NFL opponents.The Cleveland Browns rank #9-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 63.3%.As a unit, the Browns cornerbacks rank #4 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Cincinnati has run the #28-fastest paced offense this season.The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to run 61.5 plays in this matchup, the #25-most on the game slate.THE BLITZ projects Cincinnati to drop back to pass on 57.4% of their plays in this game (#24-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Cincinnati's O-Line grades out as the #23-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Chase open.Cincinnati has run play-action on 23.8% of their passes this year, #23-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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Chase's 65.9% completion rate marks him in the #53 percentile among receivers.The Browns's pass defense ranks #11-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 148 yards per game this season.As a unit, the Browns safeties rank #16 in pass coverage.Cincinnati's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.42 seconds on average this year (#12-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Chase to exceed his player prop total 33.6% of the time. He projects for 35.5 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $17.78. That makes its return on investment yield +12%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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