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Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
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Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 195.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 189.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 195.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Jalen Hurts's offensive line has been #4 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Philadelphia Eagles have run play-action on 32.4% of their passes this year, #5-most in the NFL.The Giants have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.4% of their targets, ranking #25-best in the NFL.New York's linebackers grade out as the #29-best in pass coverage this year.Giants linebackers have ranked #30 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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He's been the #30-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 60.8% clip.Philadelphia has played in 5 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#11-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Philadelphia is a 11.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offense passes the ball 54.0% of the time in a neutral context (#32 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 46.9% of the time in this contest (#32 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Eagles offensive line has given Jalen Hurts 2.56 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#26-best in football).The New York Giants defense ranks #8-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.30.New York's cornerbacks grade out as the #10-best in pass coverage this year.The New York Giants have stacked the box on 8.3% of their plays this season, #29-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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Hurts has passed for 209 yards per game this year, #27-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Hurts has been #16 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.21 yards per target.The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #15-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Eagles project to run 63.5 plays in this contest, the #13-most of the week.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Philadelphia have faced the #16-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.0%).The New York Giants enter this game with the #22-best pass defense this season, allowing 258 yards per game through the air.New York's safeties grade out as the #22-best in pass coverage this year.Giants defensive ends have ranked #12 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Giants defensive tackles have ranked #17 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Hurts putting up 194.0 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.4% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$6.21 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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