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Jalen Guyton Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Los Angeles Chargers vs New York Giants
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Jalen Guyton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 39.7 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Guyton is projected for 7.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #98 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.47 yards per target this season, ranking in the #79 percentile.Los Angeles has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.New York's defense has allowed 168 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#9-most in football).The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #3-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Chargers project to run 63.9 plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 68.5% of the time in a neutral context (#3 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 62.4% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Chargers offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Chargers have run play-action on 29.3% of their passes this year, #8-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles has faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.4%).
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CONS:
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Opposing wideouts have put up the #27-most yards per target (7.57) against the Giants this season.Los Angeles is a 9.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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Guyton has been on the field for 56.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #59 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 63.1% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #56 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 6.8% -- #38 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Guyton has been in the #37 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 61.7% completion rate.The Giants have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 66.9% of their targets this season, (#16-most in the league).New York Giants cornerbacks rank as the #11 unit in pass coverage.New York Giants safeties rank as the #15 unit in pass coverage.Guyton's offensive line has been #17 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 42.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.96 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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