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Jalen Guyton Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers
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Jalen Guyton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 16.0 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Los Angeles has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Bengals have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 69.1% of their targets this season, (#6-most in the league).The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #3-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Los Angeles is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offense passes the ball 68.3% of the time in a neutral context (#3 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 65.6% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Chargers offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Chargers have run play-action on 29.3% of their passes this year, #8-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles has faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.4%).
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CONS:
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Guyton has been in the #16 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 55.9% completion rate.Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks rank as the #9 unit in pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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Guyton has been on the field for 56.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #57 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 63.6% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #56 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 6.4% -- #34 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Guyton is projected for -0.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #64 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.04 yards per target this season, ranking in the #43 percentile.Cincinnati's defense has allowed 161 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#14-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #16-most yards per target (8.41) against the Bengals this season.Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the #15 unit in pass coverage.The Chargers project to run 62.6 plays in this contest, the #16-most of the week.Guyton's offensive line has been #16 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 16.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.6% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$6.41 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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