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Gardner Minshew Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Gardner Minshew Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 232.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 240.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 232.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Philadelphia Eagles have had the #9-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Gardner Minshew's offensive line has been #7 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Philadelphia Eagles have run play-action on 32.4% of their passes this year, #5-most in the NFL.The New York Jets enter this game with the #30-best pass defense this season, allowing 280 yards per game through the air.The Jets have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 73.3% of their targets, ranking #27 in the NFL.New York's defense has been #32-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.88 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The New York Jets have had the #23-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The New York Jets have had the #26-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The New York Jets have had the #28-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.The New York Jets have stacked the box on 21.9% of their plays this season, #2-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Philadelphia has played in 4 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#11-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Philadelphia is a 5.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.This offense passes the ball 55.1% of the time in a neutral context (#32 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 54.8% of the time in this contest (#25 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Eagles offensive line has given Gardner Minshew 2.56 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Jets defensive tackles have ranked #7 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Eagles project to run 63.0 plays in this contest, the #13-most of the week.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Philadelphia have faced the #16-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#14.0%).Jets defensive ends have ranked #14 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Jets linebackers have ranked #16 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 237.5 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.9% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.50 and with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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