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Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
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Right now, Gabriel Davis Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-110).
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PROS:
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Davis ranks in the #98 percentile and has put up 10.45 yards per target this season.This year, the Bills have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 67.6% of the time (#3 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Buffalo to drop back to pass on 62.4% of their plays in this game (#7-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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CONS:
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The Patriots's pass defense ranks #4-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 128 yards per game this season.The New England Patriots have allowed 7.71 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #8-highest among NFL opponents.The New England Patriots rank #4-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 60.9%.As a unit, the Patriots cornerbacks rank #8 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Patriots safeties rank #3 in pass coverage.The Bills enter as a 4.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Davis ranks in the #48 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 49.1% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Davis ranks in the #43 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 49.3% of Buffalo's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Davis ranks in the #52 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 11.0% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Davis for a 1.1% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Davis's 61.6% completion rate marks him in the #37 percentile among receivers.In a neutral context, Buffalo has run the #18-fastest paced offense this season.The Buffalo Bills are projected to run 62.3 plays in this matchup, the #11-most on the game slate.Buffalo's O-Line grades out as the #17-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Davis open.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Davis to exceed his player prop total 52.2% of the time. He projects for 29.6 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.30 with a negative ROI of 0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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