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Freddie Swain Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
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Freddie Swain Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 13.0 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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Seattle has played in the #10-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.San Francisco 49ers cornerbacks rank as the #24 unit in pass coverage.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #2-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Seattle is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offense passes the ball 63.1% of the time in a neutral context (#10 in the NFL).
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 6.28 yards per target this season, ranking in the #13 percentile.Swain's offensive line has been #25 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Seattle has faced the #28-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.2%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Swain has been on the field for 64.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #66 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 70.1% of Seattle's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #61 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 10.1% -- #51 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Swain is projected for -0.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #54 percentile among wide receivers.Swain has been in the #40 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 62.3% completion rate.San Francisco's defense has allowed 154 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#21-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #15-most yards per target (8.53) against the 49ers this season.The 49ers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.5% of their targets this season, (#13-most in the league).San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the #14 unit in pass coverage.The Seahawks project to run 62.0 plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 59.8% of the time in this contest (#16 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Seahawks offensive line has given the QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#22-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Seattle Seahawks have run play-action on 25.1% of their passes this year, #19-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 21.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.9% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $14.02. It's return on investment would yeild 12%.
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